The Ukrainian government is increasing the number of war games as the threat from Russia grows once again. After seven years of armed conflict, which has already claimed the lives of some 14,000 people, the government in Kiev is trying to end hostilities through diplomatic means, but at the same time is preparing for a military confrontation. According to recent reports, about 100,000 Russian troops have amassed near Ukraine's eastern border.

Ukrainian war games are no game

Since the beginning of the conflict with Russia in 2014, Ukraine has consistently increased the number of military exercises each year. In 2021 alone, the Armed Forces of Ukraine took part in 22 multinational military exercises, 14 of which were held abroad. By comparison, in 2015 Ukrainian soldiers participated in a total of 11 different types of military exercises.

Last year Ukraine's then-Defence Minister Andriy Taran invited all NATO partners to increase participation in military exercises on the territory of Ukraine, noting that Kiev takes war games just as seriously as the real war.

Not only is the number of exercises growing, but also their scale. The Ukrainian-American naval exercises Sea Breeze 2021, held in June and July in the Black Sea region, involved 32 countries from 6 continents, providing 5,000 troops, 32 ships, 40 aircraft and 18 special operations and diving teams. It was the largest naval drill conducted in Ukraine.

In turn, the strategic command and staff exercise Joint Efforts 2021, held in September 2021, involved about 12,500 military personnel and more than 600 hardware and armament pieces from 11 NATO member states and 4 partner countries.

According to Taran, Joint Efforts 2021 was an important step toward building interoperability with NATO forces. It was not just an exercise, but a demonstration of the military capabilities and combat readiness.

"We have seen that this interoperability has been demonstrated at a high level," said then-Defense Minister. "Our partners have been involved in both the planning and the practical phase of the Joint Efforts 2021, and we saw the ability to act in synergy at every level."

Kiev’s response to Russia's military drills

Ukraine's war games are not only an endurance test for the military, but also a test of readiness in case of a Russian offensive. Kiev is also trying to minimize the danger of Russian military exercises becoming a flashpoint for a possible conflict.

The Joint Efforts 2021 exercises took place around the same time as the Zapad 2021 military exercises, which involved Russian and Belarusian troops. Although Zapad is held every four years, this year's exercise near the borders of the European Union and Ukraine was particularly troubling given the buildup of Russian troops in the region.

Commenting on Joint Efforts 2021, Andriy Taran stressed that such large-scale defense training is extremely important for Ukraine, as the Defense Ministry has been noticing constant movements of Russian forces near the border for several months.

Taran also pointed out that Russia used the military exercises as a pretext to build up the forces that invaded Georgia on August 8, 2008. As a result of the war, Tbilisi lost control over parts of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

"We need to ensure that our defense forces are fully prepared, taking into account that the Kremlin is using the exercises as cover-up," Taran stated in September.

From war games to warfare

Just two months after Taran's warning, Russian military forces have once again built a massive offensive grouping in the region. On November 10, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that nearly 100,000 Russian troops amassed at the border.

"I hope that the whole world can now clearly see who wants peace and who is concentrating almost 100,000 soldiers on our border,"

Zelensky said in a video message posted on his official website.

Ukrainian journalist and military expert Yuriy Butusov believes that Russia's actions are a show of force. "First of all, it is a military-political showdown aimed at putting pressure on the Ukrainian leadership to achieve certain political results. Secondly, this is, of course, a working scenario of warfare," Butusov says.

Head of Ukraine's defense intelligence agency Kyrylo Budanov echoes Butusov's words. In an interview with "Military Times", Budanov said that Moscow plans to attack Ukraine in late January or early February 2022. "Such an attack would likely include air strikes, artillery and armored attacks, followed by airborne assaults in the east and amphibious attacks in Odessa and Mariupol," he assessed.

Due to the deteriorating security situation, experts believe that Ukraine's participation in war games is of great importance. The director of the Center for International Studies at Odessa Mechnikov National University Volodymyr Dubovyk stresses that in recent years a NATO warship has been constantly on duty in the Black Sea. In his opinion, this is a clear signal to Russia that Ukraine is not alone.

"This does not mean that if Russia attacks Odessa or our warships, NATO forces will join the fight, but moral support is very important for us,"

Dubovyk says.