Politics
The complexities of neo-Ottoman geopolitics. Why is Turkey trying so hard to maintain its foothold in Libya?
THE STORY BY memet aksakal
Cover photo: Hamza turkia
As Libya struggled with a vicious civil war, Recep Tayyip Erdogan decided to start a new chapter in Mediterranean politics. By allying itself with the government in Tripoli, Ankara has become one of the key players in a complicated showdown. At stake is not only the fate of Libya but also Turkey's standing in this part of the world.
Divided Libya under two governments
Eleven years after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi's regime, Libya has yet to experience stability. Torn by growing conflict between factions vying for power, the country plunged into the abyss of civil war in 2014. Although it ended two years ago, Libya is still waiting for political unification. For now, there are two centers of power, in Tripoli and Tobruk, and a symbol of the division is the dispute over who should hold the office of prime minister.
The ongoing power struggle is not just between Libyans themselves, however. Around three years ago, Turkey joined in. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan saw an opportunity to improve his country's standing in the Mediterranean region. A new chapter in Turkish geopolitics opened with the alliance with the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord, with which the Tobruk-based House of Representatives competes.
Turkish plans are highly complicated by the Libyan political puzzle. During the GNA rule (2015-2021), then-Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj and Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha were considered allies of Erdogan, as was Khalid Al-Mishri, an influential Muslim Brotherhood figure that was a pillar of that government. In February 2021, Al-Sarraj was replaced as prime minister by Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, who was elected by a vote of delegates at the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum in Geneva, under United Nations auspices.
Bashagha, without any position in the new government, decided to strike a deal with Gen. Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army and the main adversary of the Tripoli government during the civil war (2014-2020). As a result, the House of Representatives in Tobruk elected Bashagha as Prime Minister of the Government of National Stabilization on February 10, 2022. Libya thus has two prime ministers who claim that their respective governments are the only legitimate ones.
Photo: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visiting Libya's new unity government Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah attended a welcome ceremony in Ankara, Turkey, on April 12, 2021. Photo: Mustafa Kaya/Xinhua News Agency
Eleven years after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi's regime, Libya has yet to experience stability.
Photo: Mustafa Kaya/Xinhua News Agency
Turkey's strategic alliance across the Mediterranean Sea
Abdul Hamid Dbeibah was to serve as prime minister of the Government of National Unity until the presidential election, which was to be held on December 24, 2021. There were high hopes for his government. His main tasks included securing the departure of foreign soldiers and mercenaries, reunifying central institutions, and preparing Libya for elections. However, Dbeibah used the position of prime minister to consolidate his power, and the elections were postponed to another, unknown date.
As Turkey seeks to maintain its influence in the region, it is crucial which government will settle the power struggle in its favor. To maintain power, Dbeibah has strengthened his alliance with Erdogan in recent months. However, if Bashagha were to win the struggle, Turkey's position in Libya would be undermined, and it would be the end of Erdogan's neo-Ottoman dreams. Such historical overtones in Ankara stem primarily from the fact that Libya was ruled by the Ottoman Empire from 1551 to 1912.
Photo: Hamza Turkia/Xinhua News AgencyTurkey's involvement formally began with signing the Maritime Borders and Military Cooperation Agreement with the then Fayez al-Sarraj-led Government of National Accord on November 27, 2019. Previously, there were claims in the media that Turkey was sending weapons to Tripoli. The agreement was opposed by the Tobruk-based House of Representatives and Gen. Khalifa Haftar. A month later, Erdogan called him 'a putschist' and 'a terrorist.'
"Any developments in Libya are of great concern to us. Libya is a legacy of both the Ottoman Empire and Gazi Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who held important positions here as an Ottoman officer," the Turkish president said. "From the very beginning, we opposed the attacks of the putschist on the legitimate government. We have given, are giving, and will continue to give all kinds of support to the Tripoli administration, which is fighting the putschist supported by various European and Arab countries."
Photo: The special military forces of Libya's UN-backed government perform the military skills on the graduation day in Omar Al-Mokhtar training centre, near Tripoli, Libya, on Nov. 21, 2020. Photo: Hamza Turkia/ Xinhua News Agency
As Turkey seeks to maintain its influence in the region, it is crucial which government will settle the power struggle in its favor.
Photo: Khalil Ashawi/Reuters
What is the reason for Ankara's involvement?
The first photos of Turkish weapons arriving in Libya were published on social media on May 19, 2019. There were also several photos of troops from the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army. It wasn't until almost a year later that Erdogan admitted that Turkish soldiers and Syrians were involved in the fighting in Libya. "Where are we now? We are there (in Libya) against the illegitimate Haftar, the paid legionnaire. We are there together with Syrian National Army troops that continue the fight," Erdogan stressed in a February 2020 speech.
At the time, the Turkish president argued that the reason for Ankara's involvement was the instability in Libya and the terrorist threat. However, Turkish political activist and writer Firat Erez believes that Erdogan wants to show his strength and bolster his position in relations with Western countries. According to him, this goal is to be achieved through military operations in Syria, movements in the Aegean Sea, and involvement in Libya.
"All these activities are an extension of the same policy. Erdogan is fighting the West and showing what he can do against its interests. His main goal is to create problems for Western countries to get what he wants from them. He uses the oppression of Muslims to rally a circle of supporters around him. And this strategy is working," Erez assesses.
Libyan military commander Khalifa Haftar shakes hands with a comrade during Independence Day celebrations in Benghazi, Libya December 24, 2020. Photo: Esam Omran Al-Fetori/ReutersTurkey is the only country that officially acknowledged sending troops and military equipment to Libya, thus admitting to violating the UN arms embargo. However, the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, also went to Libya to assist Haftar's Libyan National Army. Russia, however, has never officially admitted to supporting these forces, claiming that they were not affiliated with the Russian army.
Erdogan's neo-Ottoman dream
A key reason for Turkish involvement in Libya was Ankara's waning position in the Middle East due to the war in Syria. Erdogan has actively supported rebels, but despite 11 years of armed conflict., the regime of Bashar al-Assad has remained in power. Political scientist Ali Yagiz Baltaci says Turkey's inability to forge alliances with countries in the eastern Mediterranean made it necessary to turn to Libya.
"In assessing Turkey's Middle East policy over the past 20 years, it would not be appropriate to provide a perspective independent of Erdogan's political line. The neo-Ottoman policy, especially between 2010 and 2015, determined Ankara's position towards the civil war in Syria," Baltaci emphasizes. "Under the influence of the Arab Spring, Turkey tried to take the lead in designing the future shape of the Middle East. However, this approach, ignoring the internal dynamics in the region, did not bring positive results."
"The effect of the protracted civil war in Syria was a massive influx of refugees that affected Turkey politically, economically, demographically, and socially. Due to its constantly strained relations with states such as Syria, Egypt, and Israel, Ankara had difficulty finding allies in the Eastern Mediterranean. Therefore, it has had to turn to Libya. For this reason, Turkey is also trying to rebuild relations with Israel and open a new chapter in mutual relations," Baltaci stresses.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan's dream of capturing Damascus has not come true, but the situation in Libya is much more promising. At least for now, as long as Abdul Hamid Dbeibah remains in power. It will be very different if another civil war breaks out and Gen. Haftar launches an offensive against the government in Tripoli. After all, it's not only Turkish soldiers who are stationed in Libya. There are still 900 mercenaries from the Wagner Group who support Haftar's Libyan National Army.
Photo: Syrian rebel fighters sit together in the town of Tadef, on the frontline between Russian-backed Syrian government forces and Turkey-backed Syrian rebel-held territory, in northern Syria on March 4, 2022. Photo: Khalil Ashawi/Reuters
